Wall Street Eyes Recovery As S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Rise After Trump's Tariff-Driven Selloff Wipes Out $9 Trillion In Six Weeks

U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday following a volatile day of trading on Monday that led the indices to close on a mixed note. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher in premarket.

The sell-off that began on Thursday has driven the Nasdaq into bear market territory, whereas the S&P 500 and Dow Jones continue to be in the correction zone.

As China’s Commerce Ministry said that it "resolutely opposes" U.S. President Donald Trump‘s threat to impose additional 50% duties on Chinese imports, the ministry vowed to take countermeasures to protect its interests, intensifying trade tensions that have already triggered market turmoil.

Major indices were significantly down from recent highs as of Tuesday. The S&P 500 was 17.65% lower, the Nasdaq 100 was down 21.56%, and the Dow Jones declined 15.77%, following a week of tariff-driven selloffs.

The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.17% and the two-year bond was at 3.77%. However, the CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections showed markets pricing a 71.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its May meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Dow Jones	2.03%
S&P 500	1.67%
Nasdaq 100	1.42%
Russell 2000	2.06%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, advanced in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was up 1.13% to $510.07, while the QQQ declined 1.09% to $428.30, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session:

Real estate, materials, and utilities sectors led Monday’s S&P 500 decline, pulling the U.S. stocks to a mixed close, with the Dow Jones falling for its third consecutive session.

Conversely, communication services and information technology stocks bucked the trend, closing higher.

Within tech, Tesla Inc. TSLA shares fell roughly 2.6%, while Apple Inc. AAPL lost 3.7%. Market volatility stemmed from Trump’s Truth Social post, threatening 50% U.S. tariffs on China following China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reported a 0.7% month-over-month drop in March, consistent with February’s decline.

The Dow Jones index slumped 349 points or 0.91% to 37,965.60, whereas the S&P 500 index fell 0.23% to 5,062.25. Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend to end 0.099% higher at 15,603.26, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, tumbled 0.92% to 1,810.14.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	0.099%	15,603.26
S&P 500	-0.23%	5,062.25
Dow Jones	-0.91%	37,965.60
Russell 2000	-0.92%	1,810.14

Insights From Analysts:

Lawrence McDonald, founder of Bear Traps Report, calculates that Trump’s tariff-driven selloff has obliterated $9 trillion in just six weeks, matching the COVID crash’s one-month losses and exceeding the 2008 Lehman collapse’s 12-month decline.

Only the 2022 inflation downturn saw greater losses, at $10 trillion over 11 months. Notably, unlike previous crises where bond yields plummeted, current 30-year yields remain high, near 4.5%, eliminating a traditional bond-market safety net. Reuters reports the global impact of these tariffs at a $10 trillion market wipeout.

What do Bonds Know?

*Last 20 years, large equity market risk-off events have — always — brought in "flight to quality" buyers of long duration U.S. Treasuries. Not this time.

**Book Ideas – "How to Listen When Markets Speak" on Amazon. pic.twitter.com/naR2vpsuLr
— Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) April 7, 2025

The VIX sustained levels above 45 for two consecutive days, closing at 45.31 on Monday and 46.98 on Tuesday. As former Luby Asset Management CIO Bill Luby noted, this marks the first such occurrence since the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Consecutive 45+ $VIX closes are extremely rare. So rare that only two previous crises have included at least two 45+ closes in a row: the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09 and the Pandemic of 2020.
— Bill Luby (@VIXandMore) April 7, 2025

A dramatic 118% surge in the VIX over three days marks its fifth-largest such spike. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello‘s data shows that the two larger three-day VIX spikes of 176% in 2018 and 167% in 2015, preceded strong S&P 500 returns over the following one to five years, leading Bilello to conclude that “high volatility/fear = opportunity”.

The $VIX increased 118% over the last 3 trading days, the 5th biggest 3-day spike ever.

What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes?

Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average returns over the next 1-5 years.

High volatility/fear = opportunity. pic.twitter.com/3X373zS1K8
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 7, 2025

Meanwhile, Bravos Research indicates a “risk-off” sentiment in the U.S. stock market, triggered by a gold-to-silver ratio breakout, currently at 99.59. This closely watched metric suggests investors are shifting from volatile silver to safe-haven gold, a pattern seen before the 2022, 2020, and 2008 market downturns.

15/ This is what the gold-to-silver ratio looks like since 2020

It just broke out above a major basing pattern that had been forming since 2022

This is a risk-off signal, showing traders are moving away from the more volatile silver and into gold pic.twitter.com/YlcE5Q0oVm
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 7, 2025

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on Tuesday:

The NFIB optimism index for March will be out by 6:00 a.m., and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at 8:00 a.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus:

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. WBA was up 1.31% in premarket on Tuesday before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of 53 cents per share on revenue of $38 billion.

RPM International Inc. RPM was down 0.19% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of 49 cents per share on revenue of $1.51 billion before the opening bell.

Cal-Maine Foods Inc. CALM rose 0.59% ahead of its earnings call after the closing bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of $10.90 per share on revenue of $1.43 billion.

Greenbrier Companies Inc. GBX dropped 4.72% after posting downbeat results for its second quarter. The company reported quarterly sales of $762.1 million, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $898.530 million.

Levi Strauss & Co. LEVI surged 10.37% after reporting better-than-expected earnings for its first quarter on Monday. Levi also said its 2025 guidance remains unchanged, other than to reflect its Dockers business as a discontinued operation, and does not reflect any impact from the recently announced tariffs.

Marvell Technology Inc. MRVL advanced 3.14% after it announced the sale of its automotive Ethernet business to Infineon for $2.5 billion in cash.

Viasat Inc. VSAT was 1.32% higher after announcing the launch of Amara, its next-generation In-flight Connectivity (IFC) solution for commercial aviation.

P10 Inc. PX moved 0.70% higher after acquiring Madrid-based Qualitas Equity Funds for $63 million. Qualitas manages roughly $1 billion in fee-paying assets for over 1,300 partners.

Heavyweights, Nvidia Corporation NVDA rose 2.41%, Apple Inc. advanced 1.34%, Microsoft Corp. MSFT gained 0.79%, Amazon.com Inc. AMZN was 2.04% higher, and Tesla Inc. TSLA climbed 1.89%.

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.05% to hover around $60.73 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar advanced 0.82% to hover around $3,007.02 per ounce. Its fresh record high stood at $3,168.04 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.14% at the 103.111 level.

Asian markets rose on Tuesday. India's S&P BSE Sensex, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and South Korea's Kospi index advanced. European markets were also higher in early trade.

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