Zinger Key Points
- 2024 is likely to be a "tale of two halves," - a cautious first half giving way to strong performance in the second half: Morgan Stanley
- The S&P is perched at nearly a four-month high, with the seasonality suggesting the rally could have further legs.
- Morgan Stanley advises caution as 2024 is likely to be a "tale of two halves," - a cautious H1 giving way to strong performance in the H2.
U.S. stocks could start the final session of the trading week on a mixed note as they reopen after Thanksgiving. Friday’s session is abbreviated and the market closes at 1 p.m. ET. Nvidia Corp.’s NVDA lean patch continues and the negative sentiment could pervade into the rest of the tech space. Bond yields have seen a small upward bounce, while crude oil continues to languish. Traders may also react to the S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ data shortly after the market opens.
Cues From Wednesday's Trading:
The major averages advanced in thin pre-holiday trade on Wednesday despite some earnings disappointments. Traders were encouraged by an intra-day pullback in bond yields amid the release of weak weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders report for October.
The S&P 500 Index settled at its highest level since Aug. 1 and the Dow ended at a 3-1/2 month high.
US Index Performance On Thursday
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | +0.46% | 14,265.86 |
| S&P 500 Index | +0.41% | 4,556.62 |
| Dow Industrials | +0.53% | 35,273.03 |
| Russell 2000 | +0.69% | 1,795.54 |
Analyst Color:
As the year-end draws close, a Morgan Stanley analyst cautioned that 2024 is likely to be a “tale of two halves” — a cautious first half giving way to strong performance in the second half of the year.
Mike Wilson, the firm’s Chief Investment Officer, warned that risks to global growth, driven by monetary policy, remain high, and earnings headwinds may persist into early 2024 before a recovery takes hold. In the second half of the year, falling inflation should lead to monetary easing, bolstering growth,” he added.
"We think near-term uncertainty will give way to a comeback in U.S. equities," said Wilson. He expects earnings growth to remain robust into 2025, with positive operating leverage and productivity growth from artificial intelligence likely leading to margin expansion.
Futures Today
Futures Performance On Friday
| Futures | Performance (+/-) |
| Nasdaq 100 | -0.08% |
| S&P 500 | +0.08% |
| Dow | +0.23% |
| R2K | -0.11% |
In premarket trading on Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY rose 0.09% to $455.41 and the Invesco QQQ ETF QQQ edged down 0.06% to $389.82, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Upcoming Economic Data:
S&P Global will release its flash manufacturing and services sector purchasing manager’s indices for November at 9:45 a.m. ET. The manufacturing PMI is expected to edge down from 50 in October to 49.8 in November. The service sector PMI may have fallen from 50.6 to 50.4.
See also: Best Futures Trading Software
Stocks In Focus:
- Nvidia fell over 2% in premarket trading after reports said the company is delaying the launch of its China-specific AI chip.
- Retailers could be in focus ahead of the Black Friday sales, which marks the unofficial start of the holiday season.
Commodities, Bonds, Other Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures fell 0.44% to $76.76 in early European session on Friday following Wednesday's 0.86% retreat. The weakness seen in the space has come on the back of OPEC+’s decision to delay a ministerial-level meeting to discuss output cuts to Nov. 30. Traders began discounting that the coalition may refrain from cutting production.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 0.054 percentage points to 4.47% on Friday.
Sentiment toward cryptocurrencies improved following the recent softness on the back of the issues with crypto exchange Binance. Bitcoin BTC/USD rose 1.44% to $37,870.04 over the past 24 hours.
In the currency market, the U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies except the Japanese yen.
Asian markets closed mixed on Friday, with the Hong Kong market moving sharply to the downside. The Chinese, Singaporean, and South Korean markets saw moderate losses. The rest of the major markets in the region advanced, led by Japan as sentiment remained moderately positive despite some weak domestic data.
European markets traded mixed in late trading on Friday.
Related Link: Thanksgiving’s Inflation Rate Is Way Higher Than What Government Says: These Statistics Contradict Biden’s Claims
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