Zinger Key Points
- The economy's strength will likely put upward pressure on earnings estimates, says a fund manager.
- That said, it could prompt the Fed to stay higher for longer, which has been the major worry for traders.
- Get New Picks of the Market's Top Stocks
U.S. stocks are expected to open lower on Tuesday, as worries from Monday’s session seem to carry over. Investors will be closely watching economic data, particularly job market figures, to assess the economy’s health. Strong economic data could raise concerns about the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates or even raising them further, which would likely be negative for the stock market. Additionally, several Fed speeches scheduled for today might offer clues about the future of interest rates.
Cues From Previous Session
Strong manufacturing data released on Monday spooked investors, leading to a mixed close for the market. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) unexpectedly grew and moved into expansion territory. This data pushed bond yields higher, with the 10-year note yield reaching an intraday high of 4.337% before settling at 4.318%. With the expectation of potential rate cuts diminishing, investors sold stocks in response.
Major indices initially opened higher but reversed course after the ISM data release. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 Index both dipped below the flatline in early trading and continued a steady decline into the afternoon. They then consolidated around these lower levels for the rest of the day.
The Nasdaq Composite, though lagging below the flatline in mid-day trading, managed to recover and close slightly positive. However, it remains below its recent highs on March 21st and 22nd.
Eight out of 11 S&P sectors closed in the red, with interest-rate-sensitive real estate stocks suffering the most significant losses. Conversely, communication services stocks saw a sharp rise, while energy and IT sectors also attracted some buying interest.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | +0.11% | 16,396.83 |
| S&P 500 Index | -0.20% | 5,243.77 |
| Dow Industrials | -0.60% | 39,566.85 |
| Russell 2000 | -1.02% | 2,102.84 |
Insights From Analysts:
Despite fears regarding stretched valuations of tech stocks, an economist suggests they have more room to run. “Tech's momentum has withered a bit, but I don’t believe this sector has seen its highs,” said Jeremy Siegel, Senior Economist to WisdomTree, said in his weekly commentary.
The Emeritus Professor of Finance at the Wharton School said this week will clarify whether the record run of the previous one was end-of-quarter positioning or not. “I see nothing breaking the upward trend in equities and I hope it broadens out,” he added.
Fund manager Louis Navellier underlined two offshoots of a stronger economy. “The tension remains between the strength of the economy putting upward pressure on earnings estimates, while at the same time making it more likely that the Fed will stay higher for longer to push towards their 2% inflation target,” the analyst said.
He expects the Fed to bow to political pressure from the incumbent to ease rates ahead of the election and to “deal with any reigniting of inflation after the election.”
Futures Today
Futures Performance On Tuesday ( as of 7 a.m. EDT)
| Futures | Performance (+/-) |
| Nasdaq 100 | -0.34% |
| S&P 500 | -0.27% |
| Dow | -0.39% |
| R2K | -0.63% |
In premarket trading on Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY slipped 0.21% to $521.07, and the Invesco QQQ ETF QQQ fell 0.27% to $443.77 according to Benzinga Pro data.
Upcoming Economic Data:
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release factory goods orders data at 10 a.m. EDT. Economists, on average, expect a 1% month-over-month increase in factory goods orders for February, reversing the 3.6% decline in the previous month. Durable goods orders, which account for the bulk of factory goods, climbed 1.4% in February, the Commerce Department said in late March.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the results of the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. EDT. The consensus estimate calls for job openings of 8.8 million for the month, a tick down from 8.9 million in January.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is due to speak at 10:10 a.m. EDT, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester at 12:05 p.m. EDT, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly at 1:30 a.m. EDT.
See Also: Best Strategies for Futures Trading
Stocks In Focus:
- PVH Corp. PVH and lifestyle electric-vehicle manufacturer Canoo, Inc. GOEV fell over 22.50% in premarket trading following their earnings releases.
- Paychex, Inc. PAYX, Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. PLAY, and Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. CALM are among the companies due to release their quarterly earnings Tuesday.
- Tesla, Inc. TSLA fell over 1.50% ahead of the release of its first-quarter deliveries.
- Health insurance stocks Humana, Inc. HUM, Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. WOOF, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH, and CVS Health Corporation CVS all fell sharply in the premarket. The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced that payments to Medicare Advantage programs, which serve those aged 65 and older, will rise by 3.7% on average in 2025, in line with the initial estimate published in January, Reuters reported. This set off worries concerning potential margin contraction for insurers.
Commodities, Bonds, and Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures rallied nearly 2% to $85.35 on Tuesday and Gold futures pushed toward another record, with the yellow metal trading up about 1% at $2,280.85 per ounce. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose marginally to 4.349%.
Bitcoin BTC/USD plunged hard Tuesday and pulled back about 4.70% toward the $66,000 level.
In Asia, the major markets traded lackluster, tracking the somber mood on Wall Street, although the Hong Kong market played catch-up and advanced notably on Tuesday. The Taiwanese market also rallied strongly.
European stocks showed tentativeness and traded narrowly mixed as they reopened after the Boxing Day holiday. Sore manufacturing activity data out of the region served to keep sentiment subdued. On the other hand, German inflation data showed a letup in pricing pressure in March.
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