US Futures Show Caution Among Investors Ahead Of FOMC Meeting: Analysts Say Only Certainty Is That 'Things Will Remain Uncertain For The Time Being'

U.S. stock futures were flat on Tuesday after a bounce back on Monday. Futures of all four benchmark indices were mixed in premarket trading.

On Monday, stocks continued their recovery from last week’s sell-off, which had pushed the S&P 500 into correction territory amid growing concerns over the U.S. economy’s ability to withstand President Donald Trump‘s trade war.

The two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will begin today as they discuss and announce their decision on interest rates slated to be released tomorrow. Chairman Jerome Powell will address a press conference on Wednesday afternoon.

The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.31%, while the two-year yield was at 4.04%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Nasdaq 100	-0.21%
S&P 500	-0.06%
Dow Jones	0.02%
Russell 2000	-0.22%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which tracks the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, dropped slightly in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 0.15% to $566.37, and the QQQ also declined 0.25% to $481.54, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From The Last Session

Real estate, energy, and consumer staples stocks led Monday’s market rally, with significant gains across the S&P 500. Conversely, consumer discretionary stocks dipped.

This sector-driven strength propelled the Dow Jones higher extending the market’s recovery after last week’s sharp declines, which saw the Dow lose 3.1% and the S&P 500 drop over 2%.

In company news, Guess? Inc. GES shares surged 30% on acquisition interest, and Baidu Inc. BIDU shares climbed 9% following the launch of new AI models.

Economic data presented a mixed picture, with retail sales growth below expectations, a sharp drop in the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and a decline in housing market confidence.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	0.31%	17,808.66
S&P 500	0.64%	5,675.12
Dow Jones	0.85%	41,841.63
Russell 2000	1.19%	2,068.33

Insights From Analysts

The market sentiment seemed to be recovering on Monday after the S&P 500 index recorded an upmove in 90% of its issues for two consecutive days. Ryan Detrick of Carson Research highlighted that this was a rare occurrence when 90% of S&P 500 constituents rose back-to-back for two days.

According to the historical data shared by him, this has only happened 12 times since 1972 and the index has been higher in all instances after a year.

Back-to-back 90% advancing issues for the S&P 500.

Using @NDR_Research data back to 1972 shows higher six and 12 months later every single time, with much better than average returns.

I'm sure this will make everyone mad, but it made me 😃 pic.twitter.com/QWf8lJx2eQ
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 18, 2025

Meanwhile, Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab said in a note "The only thing we can be certain of is that things will remain uncertain for the time being."

They quoted the data from a few years ago when confidence metrics went through a soft patch giving a “false” recessionary signal amid strong underlying growth and the hard data. They termed it as a “vibecession.”

Whereas they termed the current period as “vibespansion," which was evident a few months ago, however, many strong sentiment metrics are receding. "If the soft data stay soft long enough, we see more risk of the hard data catching down," the note added.

Edward Yardeni or Yardeni Research highlighted that the markets could have bottomed out on Thursday last week and rose on Friday and Monday because there was no comment from Trump on tariffs.

He said, "From a sentiment perspective, it is possible that Thursday's selloff followed by Friday's rally marked a bottom in the correction. We will be more inclined to call a bottom when we see the stock market move higher on a day or days when Trump blusters about tariffs again, which he did not do on Friday."

"Any day without a Trump tariff comment is a good day for the market. We know that on April 2 there will be lots of reciprocal tariffs imposed on many more nations by the administration, undoubtedly eliciting lots of comments from Tariff Man," he added.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on Tuesday:

February’s housing starts, building permits, and import price index data will be announced at 8:30 a.m., ET.

Also, February’s industrial production and capacity utilization data will be released at 9:15 a.m., ET.

Stocks In Focus:

IHS Holding Ltd. IHS was up 0.77% in premarket on Tuesday ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect earnings of 4 cents per share on revenue of $424.00 million.

HealthEquity Inc. HQY advanced 0.28% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of 72 cents per share on revenue of $306.05 million after the closing bell.

StoneCo Ltd. STN rose 0.49% ahead of its earnings after the closing bell. Analysts expect earnings of 35 cents per share on revenue of $647.56 million.

Getty Images Holdings Inc. GETY jumped 2.33% after posting an upbeat earnings result for its fourth quarter on Monday.

Sangamo Therapeutics Inc. SGMO dropped 6.83% after reporting worse-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results.

Baidu Inc. BIDU was 4.39% higher continuing the momentum from yesterday following the launch of new AI models.

Bon Natural Life Ltd. BON surged 29.71% after it secured $12 million in gross proceeds from a best efforts unit offering.

Harrow Inc. HROW zoomed 24.14% after it projected 2025 revenue of over $280 million, driven by branded products.

Bakkt Holdings Inc. BKKT plunged 30.24% after it rescheduled its fourth-quarter earnings call to March 18, 2025.

Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.35% to hover around $68.28 per barrel.

The gold spot index was up by 0.70% to $3,022.11 per ounce. Its last record high was at $3,028.49 per ounce. The Dollar Index was down by 0.05% at the 103.322 level.

Asian markets closed higher on Tuesday with China’s CSI 300, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, Australia's ASX 200, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and India's S&P BSE Sensex advancing in trade. European markets were also higher in trade.

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