US Stocks Likely To Open In Green Amid Hints Of Tentativeness On Election Eve: Expert Says Brace For Volatility Ahead Of Fed's Rate Decision

U.S. stocks could get off to a positive start on Monday after the averages registered a mixed October. While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones snapped their five-month winning streak, the Nasdaq Composite closed in the green buoyed by Big Tech earnings.

America goes to polls on Tuesday to elect its 47th president, and data so far suggests that it will be a neck-to-neck race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump.

The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, is also widely expected to deliver another rate cut this week, with CME Group's FedWatch tool suggesting there is a 96% chance that this will happen.

Futures	Performance (+/-)
Nasdaq 100	0.15%
S&P 500	0.19%
Dow Jones	0.08%
R2K	-0.01%

In premarket trading on Monday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY gained 0.20% to $572.21 and the Invesco QQQ ETF QQQ rose 0.22% to $488.50, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Week:

Oil prices continued to rebound after tanking the week before, amid delays in production output increase by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC.

Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed on a negative note, with utilities, energy, and real estate stocks recording the biggest losses on Friday.

However, consumer discretionary and information technology stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session higher.

Index	Last Week’s Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	-1.5%	18,518.61
S&P 500	-1.4%	5,728.80
Dow Jones	-0.15%	42,052.19
Russell 2000	0.1%	2,210.13

Insights From Analysts:

A Harris win could see the U.S. dollar weakening, according to ING analyst Francesco Pesole.

"Despite some unwinding of Trump trades, asset markets are still broadly pricing in a Trump win. As things stand now, we expect the dollar to sell off if Harris wins, while the impact of a Trump win may depend more on the Congress composition."

On the other hand, rate cut expectations seem to be unanimous among analysts, even though the Presidential race is neck-to-neck.

"On Thursday, when we may or may not know who the next President is going to be, we should almost certainly see a 25 basis points cut from the Fed and a reiteration from [Fed Chair] Powell that the Fed’s subsequent meetings will be data dependent," Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid in a research note.

Fed chair Jerome Powell's commentary would also be on the Street's radar as it looks for guidance on the central bank's rate action going forward.

“We look for Fed Chair Powell to once again be the voice of reason corralling the FOMC to prudently ease monetary policy,” said EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco.

Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivatives Analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, laid out the thesis for market movements for the next week.

"My overall forecast for next week is “volatile and bearish.” What could challenge my outlook? If Election Results are not drawn out (meaning we have clarity on the winner following Election Day), or the Fed doesn’t provide a hawkish tone next Thursday, like I suspect they will, then stocks will likely rally."

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Upcoming Economic Data

Monday's economic calendar is light, but crucial economic data is scheduled for the rest of the week.

• On Monday, factory order data will be released at 10 a.m. ET.
• On Tuesday, U.S. trade deficit data will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• ISM services data will be released at 10 a.m. ET.
• On Wednesday, S&P will release the final U.S. services purchasing manager's index (PMI) at 9:45 a.m. ET.
• On Thursday, initial jobless claims data and preliminary productivity numbers will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• Wholesale inventories data will be released at 10 a.m. ET.
• FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET.
• Fed Chair Powell will address a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
• On Friday, preliminary consumer sentiment data will be released at 10 a.m. ET.
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak about banking regulations at 11 a.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus:

• Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. DJT will be in focus on election eve. The stock experienced increased volatility last week and fell over 27%.
• Tesla Inc. TSLA shares will be in focus on Monday after the Elon Musk-led EV giant saw its China sales decline in October.
• Nvidia Corp. NVDA will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average this week, replacing Intel Corp. INTC and ending its 25-year run.
• Apple Inc.'s AAPL largest shareholder, the Warren Buffett-led Berkshire Hathaway, pared its stake in the iPhone maker by 25% in the July-September quarter.
• Boeing Co. BA machinists are set to vote on the new proposed deal that could bring an end to a seven-week-long strike.
• Investors are awaiting earnings results from Constellation Energy Corporation CEG, Marriott International, Inc. MAR, and Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN today.

Commodities, Bonds And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures surged in the early New York session, rising by over 3% after OPEC announced a delay in increasing production.

The 10-year Treasury note yield eased marginally to 4.285%.

Major Asian markets ended in the green on Monday, and European stocks showed strength as well in early trading.

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